#ShrinkTheGame Vol. 19

Semi Finals, Awards, and Mini Updates

Welcome! 🎉 In an effort to stop spamming my friends with constant women’s basketball updates, I’ve created this newsletter. I know—so generous of me. No need to thank me! I’m here to keep you informed on most things WBB.

Table of Contents

Round 1: When Someone Shows You Who They Are, Believe Them.

The first round of the playoffs wrapped up Friday with a mix of upsets and some very predictable outcomes.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: the regular season shows us exactly how teams will hold up in the postseason. The strengths and weaknesses we watched all year long came to the surface in the first round, both for the teams that moved on and the ones that went home

The Golden State Valkyries The Golden State Valkyries didn’t stand much of a chance against the Minnesota Lynx, but their incredible inaugural season went out with a bang. They pushed the Lynx to the final possessions of Game 2 in hopes of forcing a deciding game, but their biggest weakness came to the surface: no true star. With Tiffany Hayes sidelined by a knee injury, they lacked a closer who could take over in crunch time and get them buckets when it mattered most.

Shout out to Veronica Burton, this year’s Most Improved Player, who tried to will them to victory but ultimately fell short. When the final buzzer sounded, the sold-out crowd in San Jose rose to their feet, giving their team the standing ovation they deserved.

This season, the Valkyries showed us resilience, execution, and fight no matter who was on the floor. They only have two players under contract for next year, but something tells me they won’t have any trouble calling their warriors back to Ballhalla.

(correct prediction)

The Atlanta Dream The Atlanta Dream had no business being knocked out in the first round. For me, this was the biggest upset by far. They entered the playoffs as the number three seed with double the wins they had last season. Despite all the changes, despite the growth, despite having Allisha Gray and Bri Jones, the Dream are once again done in the first round. They haven’t advanced past this stage since 2018.

If you’ve been reading me for a while, you know my frustration with Rhyne Howard’s inability to truly take over a game. In the final game, she settled for ill-advised shots all night, hoisting threes instead of attacking the paint. And when it came down to crunch time, the Dream’s season-long issue reared its head once again: the fourth-quarter collapse.

Up by two with ten seconds left, they unraveled. A Bri Jones turnover, a questionable Rhyne three, and then back-to-back failures to inbound the ball sealed their fate. The coaching decisions didn’t help either. Why not lob it to big ass Brittney Griner for an easy two? Instead, defensive breakdowns left Aliyah Boston and Lexie Hull scoring uncontested at the rim. Those final moments will haunt the Dream, and probably Bri Jones most of all.

It’s a shame, because this team had the talent to push Vegas in the semis. But mistakes like that don’t fly in the playoffs—and the Dream are heading home early yet again.

(incorrect prediction, Fever won 2-1)

The Seattle Storm The Seattle Storm put up a formidable fight after getting blown out by the Aces in Game 1. In the end, the league’s worst rebounding team saw its season end on a missed rebound.

Game 3 was rough. Skylar, Nneka, and Dom barely made an impact, leaving Erica Wheeler to try to will them forward. A little more offense could have been enough to steal it, because outside of A’ja the Aces played horrendously. They were very lucky that Jackie Young caught fire in the fourth quarter; otherwise, I would be writing a very different paragraph right now.

The Storm needs a reset. They lacked three-point shooting, they could not secure rebounds when it mattered most, and they were never consistent enough to keep momentum. I would have loved to see them face the Fever since they handled them pretty easily during the season, but we will never know. What we do know is that Noelle Quinn and her entire staff are out, which felt inevitable after last year, and Brittney Sykes has already made it clear she did not enjoy her time there. We can expect a very different Storm next season.

(Correct prediction, Aces won 2-1)

The New York Liberty…. I will save my full rant from a depressed fan’s perspective for my offseason overview, but the writing has been on the wall for most of the year. My poor, sweet team has been plagued by injuries, has looked out of sync, and even struggled to beat the league’s worst opponents.

In Game 2 against Phoenix, the Liberty suffered the second-worst playoff loss in franchise history, the second-worst overall, and the second-worst playoff loss ever by a defending champion. To make matters worse, Breanna Stewart sprained her MCL in Game 1, and it was clear in Game 2. In Game 3, she looked more like herself, dropping 30 points and 9 rebounds on 63% true shooting, but besides Sabrina, nobody else showed up. That has been the story of the season. It was Sabrina and Stewie carrying the load with only occasional appearances from others, and that is not how you win a championship.

The numbers tell the story, too. We went from first in rebounding in 2024 to eighth. We went from the best defense in the league to sixth. We went from allowing the fewest points in the paint to allowing the most. Sandy did not trust her bench the way she did last year, and it showed. Jonquel Jones had the worst playoff games of her career, going 1-for-10 from the field, and really struggled through the series. Hell, it was the worst playoff series of her career. If she had been herself, we probably would have beaten Phoenix, but then we would have been clobbered by the Lynx anyway.

In the end, the Liberty lost because they were not connected and could not overcome the adversity of the season. And I know I said get rid of Jonquel on my social media, I apologize, I was in my feelings. Bring our Bahmainan demon back. RUN IT BACK!!!

(correct because I said I didn’t know who would win lol, Merc won 2-1)

Breaking News: Man, do I love when breaking news drops right before I send out my newsletter lololol. Today (9/23/25), The Liberty announced that they are firing Sandy Brondello. I am STUNNED. I cannot believe they did this. Not in a way where I wanted her to stay lol, but more like wow, she just won a championship and got zero wiggle room for mistakes. However, this season was disastrous and really revealed significant flaws in Sandy’s coaching, especially as we saw other teams (Valkyries, Fever) face significant injuries and still manage to win games. The Liberty just could not do that this season, and it was not all because of injuries. Oh and, don’t think this decision was made without Sab and Stewie knowing lol This makes you wonder.. who is next? Will JJ be back after her epic collapse? Will Tash still be our PG?

Anyway, this is the Head Coach Burden, i guess. Worst job in America lol. We really are becoming more like the NBA because the WNBA of old would’ve meant Sandy had her job for another 2-3 years. I think they already know who they want. They better not hire Thibs.

@breannastewart30

Liberty for all #newyorkornowhere

The Match Ups: Semis

The semi-finals are best of 5 games instead of best of 3.

Minnesota Lynx(1) vs Phoenix Mercury (4)

Season series: 3-1 (Lynx)

The first game of the Semis kicked off on Sunday. As predicted, the Lynx swept the Valkyries on Wednesday, using their classic lose-most-of-the-game-but-win-in-the-end strategy. They did the same exact thing on Sunday. With three days of rest, the Lynx came out slow, allowing the Mercury to score 42 of their 47 first-half points in the paint. But never doubt the Queen of adjustments, aka Cheryl Reeve. The Lynx locked in defensively in the second half, allowing just 12 more points in the paint and only 22 points overall. The boldest move was benching newly crowned co-DPOY Alanna Smith (effectively killing my parlay) for Kaliundikova because Lan missed a defensive rebound, according to Cheryl, lmfao.

Phoenix started the game hot. As I mentioned, they dominated the paint early and Alyssa Thomas racked up 18 points in the first half. However, she was held to just two points in the second half. Satou Sabally had another rough Game 1, going 3-for-11. For Phoenix to have a chance, she will need to show up. The biggest problem was perimeter shooting—when the Lynx forced Phoenix to take outside shots in the second half, they could not connect, going 3-for-23 from three. Sami will need to remember that she is a deadly three-point sniper if Phoenix wants to stay alive.

Moving forward, Phoenix has to win tomorrow by any means necessary. You do not want to fall behind 2-1 against a team as formidable as the Lynx. Satou will need to step up, Dewanna cannot finish with zero points (she was rebounding her ass off, though), and AT cannot be shut down in the fourth.

The Lynx had great contributions from their players, especially in the second half. Courtney Williams finished with 23 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 5 steals. Court has a tendency to disappear, so Phoenix should focus on making life uncomfortable for her. It is no secret that Bridget Carlton’s offense has taken a nosedive since 2024, but her defense remains outstanding. She is hard to sit, and if her shot starts falling, the Lynx could blow Phoenix out of the water. Of course, Phee is Phee. KMac also provided great minutes and timely three-pointers.

I see Phoenix sneaking one game, but this is the Lynx’s series to lose.

Prediction: Lynx in 4

Las Vegas Aces (2) vs. Indiana Fever (6)

Season Series Aces 2-1

The first game of this series showed us the good and bad trends of each team at play.

The Aces squeaked out a one-point win to close out the Storm on the strength of a Jackie put-back layup, but the game as a whole was a bad one for the Aces. A’ja carried with 38 points, Jackie had 14, and Chelsea added 12. Nobody else scored more than 5. Why do I mention this? Because the Aces got SMACKED at home in Game 1 of the semifinals after Aliyah Boston basically neutralized A’ja, and the Aces couldn’t guard Kelsey Mitchell, who went off for 34 points. That allowed the Fever to steal Game 1 in Vegas.

The Fever’s strategy was very clear: take A’ja out of the game and make the rest of the Aces beat you. It worked because no one else could make a shot to save their life.

Stat of the game: The Aces had 12 assists and 12 TURNOVERS!!!

I can’t overemphasize how horrible that is lol. It means either nobody was hitting shots or the Fever’s defense was so good that they clogged the passing lanes. Either way, this will have to look very different if the Aces expect to win Game 2.

Meanwhile, the Fever keep proving that their identity is solid no matter who’s on the floor. Plug anyone in and they contribute, which gives Kelsey and AB the space to go off. This team was “not supposed” to be in the semis, but here they are, fully ready to expose the Aces’ 8th-ranked defense on the way to the Final.

Now, I don’t think A’ja has two bad games in a row; she’s the MVP for a reason. But here’s the thing: if she doesn’t play at god level, this whole team crumbles. Indiana knows that, and they’re betting that anyone not named A’ja won’t beat them. Honestly? That just might be the winning strategy.

Prediction: This will go to 5 games, and I don’t know who will win.

Award Corner

Okay, previously I talked about how long the award rollout was, but I take that back lol It’s been a pretty steady amount of award releases!

Rookie of the Year: Paige Beuckers

Most Improved Player: Veronica Burton

Coach of the Year: Natalie Nakase (First coach of an expansion team; First Asian American)

Co-Defensive Player of the Year: A’ja Wilson and Alanna Smith (First Co-Winners)

Sixth Player of the Year: Naz Hillmon

Most Improved Player: A’ja Wilson (First Player with 4 MVPs)

Kim Perrot Sportsmanship Awards: Nneka Ogwumike (First Four-Time Winner)

Basketball Executive of the Year: September 23rd

All Rookie Team: September 29

All Defensive Teams: October 1

All WNBA Teams: October 7

Plenty of voters have already posted their ballots, but the WNBA will still subject us to the slow ass rollout lol. You can follow along on Twitter:

  • MVP: A’ja Wilson

  • DPOY: A’ja Wilson

  • Rookie of the Year: Paige Bueckers

  • Sixth Woman of the Year: Naz Hillmon (Atlanta)

  • Most Improved Player: Veronica Burton (Golden State)

  • Coach of the Year: Natalia Nakase (Golden State)

  • Comeback Player of the Year: Shakira Austin (Mystics)

  • All WNBA Team

    • 1st Team: A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, Alyssa Thomas, Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell

    • 2nd Team: Sabrina Ionescu, Paige Bueckers, Nneka Ogwumike, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young

  • All Rookie Team: Paige Bueckers, Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, Janelle Salaun, Leila Lacan, Dominique Malonga

Hoops & Hype: Media Picks

Check out some of the cool podcasts, videos, reads, and fashion I saw this week.

Booked & Busy: WBB Reads 👓

Drip Report 💧