- Frederica's Newsletter
- Posts
- #ShrinkTheGame Vol. 18
#ShrinkTheGame Vol. 18
Playoff Preview
Fred S
September 14, 2025
Welcome! 🎉 In an effort to stop spamming my friends with constant women’s basketball updates, I’ve created this newsletter. I know—so generous of me. No need to thank me! I’m here to keep you informed on most things WBB.
Table of Contents
WNBA Playoff Previews
The regular season is officially over ☹️ and now it’s time for the playoffs. This year was pure chaos — Caitlin missing basically the whole season, an unbelievable wave of injuries (so many season-ending), and a record number of hardship players making their way into playoff rotations.
This year’s playoff format also looks different after last season’s outrage from Fever fans, who were salty that Connecticut swept them without a home game. The new setup:
First Round: best-of-3, with a 1-1-1 format (Home, Away, Home)
Second Round: best-of-5
Finals: best-of-7 (for the first time)
Playoffs tip off Sunday, September 14, with Lynx vs. Valkyries at 1 PM on ESPN — and then it’s wall-to-wall hoops all day. Game 2s will be on Tuesday, September 16, and Wednesday, September 17 (and yes, it’s a true tragedy that I can’t be at Barclays for it).
Full schedule linked below.
The Match Ups
Minnesota Lynx(1) vs Golden State Valkyries (8)
The Lynx have been dominant all season long and secured home court for the entire playoffs. When the Storm pulled off their one-point win over the Valkyries, the WNBA world (me, I am the world) got excited for a Lynx vs. Storm matchup. The Storm are the only team to beat the Lynx twice with Phee playing. There’s just something about that Ezi-Dom combo that completely throws Phee off her game.
And of course, the Lynx knew this.
After losing to the Fever and then beating down the Valkyries, the Lynx basically pushed the Valks from the 6th seed down to the 8th. That bumped the Storm up to 7th, meaning the Valks — who have never beaten the Lynx — will stay in Minny to face the 2024 runner-ups. I’m convinced the Lynx did this on purpose lol. Oh, and they also had Phee knock down two threes in the final game just so she could join the 50/40/90 club (only the second WNBA player ever, after Elena Delle Donne).
The Valkyries, though, had their moment: with their September 4th thriller win against the Dallas Wings, they became the first expansion team in WNBA history to make the playoffs in their inaugural season. That pretty much locks up Coach of the Year for Natalie and Executive of the Year for Valks GM Ohemaa Nyanin. Still, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Golden State. Tiff Hayes is out for game 1, so it is looking like the Cinderella run probably ends here. I’m expecting a 0-2 sweep going the Lynx’s way.
What’s highly annoying is that Chase Center is rented out for a tennis tournament, so the Valks are being sent to San Jose for their first playoff game. Booooooooo. They should’ve at least let them play at Oracle, smh.
Injury report
Lynx: Dijonai Carrington has been nursing a lingering shoulder issue where her shoulder randomly pops out of the socket. (Probable)
Valkyries: Tiffany Hayes practiced with the team but was eventually ruled out for Game 1 (Out)
Prediction: Lynx Sweep
Las Vegas Aces (2) vs. Seattle Storm (7)
starts chant M’VP! M’VP! M’VP!
Last time we talked, the Aces were on a 12-game win streak. Well… now it’s 16. After suffering the worst loss in franchise history, they didn’t lose again the rest of the regular season. WOW.
Now, I highly doubt this happens, but if A’ja leads the Aces to an undefeated playoff run? She’s the best WNBA player ever. PERIOD. No debate.
But the Aces’ story isn’t just A’ja. Chelsea Gray is back in full Point Gawd form. Jackie Young is playing out of her mind. Jewell Loyd looks like the Gold Mamba — shooting 38% from three, averaging 9.6 points, rocking a +13.0. And not enough people talk about her defense: 1.8 steals per game!
And I would be remiss not to mention that center Cheyenne Parker-Tyus has been activated after being out due to pregnancy. She gave birth to her son on July 1 and made her return on September 9, scoring 8 points in 8 minutes in her first game back. She’s going to be crucial for the Aces’ bench depth, especially since Kiah Stokes and Meg Gustafson have been basically unplayable.
Meanwhile, Seattle… has looked like a hot ass mess down the stretch (who am I to judge?). Their weirdest trait is how fast they can blow a lead. Those fourth-quarter collapses could be what sinks them.
Still, there’s hope. Nneka is having a fantastic season: 52% FG, 42% from three, 88% FT. She’s averaging 18.5 points, 6.1 boards, and 1.9 assists in the last 10 games. Madame President shows up every game, steady as ever, but she needs consistency from her teammates.
Skylar has been good, but not the consistent offensive force she was before the All-Star break. Ezi is playing at an All-Defensive level, but her offensive production has been nonexistent. Gabby Williams, Brittney Sykes, and Erica have all been up and down. Dom has been amazing off the bench, but her youth shows in crunch time.
That’s why I’m so down on the Storm. They’ll be up 20 and still manage to fumble it in the final minute. And the Aces will absolutely take advantage of that.
And of course, there is the power of hate. The lore of Aces v Seattle is two-fold:
On one hand, it’s the rivalry forged by the battles between A’ja and Breanna Stewart. In the Wubble season, Stewie and the Storm beat the Aces on their way to the title. A’ja got her revenge in 2022. (If you’ve got League Pass, go watch that 2022 series; it’s a heavyweight battle.) That said, the rivalry has shifted a bit now that Stewie is in New York.
On the other hand, Jewell requested a trade from the Storm in 2024 due to allegations of bullying in the locker room. ALLEGEDLY, it was Jewell v Skylar and Noelle Quin. But this situation also resulted in Mercedes Russell and Sami Whitcomb leaving as well. Jewell did an interview, kind of shit talking them so on and so forth. Juicy! Seattle was ultimately cleared of any wrongdoing following a WNBA investigation.
ALLLLLLLL that to say: This will be a fun, toxic series. The season series is split 2-2, with the Aces having won their most recent battle.
Injury report
Aces: No injuries to report
Storm: No Injuries to report
Prediction: Aces 2-1
Atlanta Dream(3) vs Indiana Fever (6)
The Dream vs. Fever has been a fun low-key rivalry this season, with the teams splitting their series 2–2. What makes it especially interesting is that both squads have had wildly different lineups each time, with players like Caitlin Clark, Rhyne Howard, and Jordin Canada missing games. Honestly, with all the injuries, these teams haven’t really played each other yet.
The Atlanta Dream finished 3rd (thanks to Vegas owning the season series tiebreaker) and doubled their win total from last year — a huge accomplishment considering the injuries to their starters. Now, with everyone healthy, Atlanta should be able to make quick work of the Fever. Rhyne just snagged Player of the Week honors to close the season, which is a great sign for Dream fans. Momentum going into the playoffs is big. We know Rhyne can get hot, but the question is: can she stay hot? The other wrinkle here is playoff experience; outside of Bri Jones and Brittney Griner, this team doesn’t have much of it.
The Fever, meanwhile, have been one of the most resilient teams in the league. To finish 6th after losing not just Caitlin but all their point guards is insane. They’ve had 18 different players suit up this season (that has to be some kind of record), and it just underscores how badly the WNBA needs to expand roster sizes beyond 12. Even with all the chaos, their core of Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, Natasha Howard, and Lexie Hull kept things steady. Kelsey finished as the league’s 3rd-leading scorer at 21 points per game, likely locking up an All-WNBA First Team spot. AB has been hooping too, averaging 14 points on 53% shooting and grabbing 8 rebounds a night. That’s a dynamic duo.
Ultimately, I think Atlanta’s continuity and overall level of play will win out here.
Prediction: Dream 2-0
Injury report
Dream: No Injuries to report
Fever: Damiris Dantas will be out for Game 1 (Concussion Protocols)
@atlantadream A moment to remember 🥹 #DoItForTheDream
Phoenix Mercury(4) vs New York Liberty (5)
An unimaginable position for the defending champs: the Liberty are entering the playoffs without home court in any round. They finished the season 6–4, which doesn’t sound bad, but losses to Phoenix (63–80) and Golden State (66–58) were tough to watch.
Since then, the Liberty have looked better. They closed with a big win over the Storm and two easier ones, and for the first time since May 23, they are finally fully healthy. With their complete starting five, the Liberty are 11–0 this season, including their only win against Phoenix. Does that give me hope? Honestly, I’m not sure. But I am excited to see how they look now that their best lineup is back on the floor.
Phoenix has also had a strong finish. We are finally seeing how dominant Satou, Kah, and AT can be when everything clicks, especially Satou. She can be frustrating at times, but when she locks in, she is the most athletic and dominant player on the court. Their supporting cast has stepped up as well, with Monique Akoa Makani, Lexi Held (now healthy), and Sami Whitcomb all contributing.
The real question is how much they can rely on Kah and Satou. The Mercury ended with the same 27–17 record as the Liberty because they dropped their last three games. Coach “Girl Dad” said it was about resting the starters, but I’m not sure it was worth losing momentum. But with Alyssa Thomas and DB being professional playoff players at this point, no doubt they’ll rise to the occasion.
Listen, I really do not know what is going to happen. I can see it going any way. Like a Phoenix Sweep, a Liberty Sweep, 2-1 Phx or Libs.
Injury report
Phoenix: No Injuries to report
Liberty: No Injuries to report
Prediction: 🤷🏾♀️ (Liberty Sweep)
Award Corner
It’s award season, which means the hardware will start trickling out during the playoffs while fanbases spend every day arguing about who deserves what. This schedule is honestly ridiculous. We won’t know the first and second teams until OCTOBER 7th???? Just release the damn awards, man.
Plenty of voters have already posted their ballots, but the WNBA will still subject us to the slow ass rollout lol. You can follow along on Twitter:
Running thread of All-W votes from official media voters as I see them published (please send if I’m missing!)
— Katalia (@Kataliax)
4:09 PM • Sep 12, 2025
MVP: A’ja Wilson
DPOY: A’ja Wilson
Rookie of the Year: Paige Bueckers
Sixth Woman of the Year: Naz Hillmon (Atlanta)
Most Improved Player: Veronica Burton (Golden State)
Coach of the Year: Natalia Nakase (Golden State)
Comeback Player of the Year: Shakira Austin (Mystics)
All WNBA Team
1st Team: A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, Alyssa Thomas, Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell
2nd Team: Sabrina Ionescu, Paige Bueckers, Nneka Ogwumike, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young
All Rookie Team: Paige Bueckers, Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, Janelle Salaun, Leila Lacan, Dominique Malonga
Hoops & Hype: Media Picks
Check out some of the cool podcasts, videos, reads, and fashion I saw this week.
@aja__wilson Posting this while my teammates are still in the gym 🤭🫣 lol #DressAsYourType
