- Frederica's Newsletter
- Posts
- #ShrinkTheGame Vol. 17
#ShrinkTheGame Vol. 17
The Playoff Push
Fred S
August 28, 2025
Welcome! 🎉 In an effort to stop spamming my friends with constant women’s basketball updates, I’ve created this newsletter. I know—so generous of me. No need to thank me! I’m here to keep you informed on most things WBB.
Table of Contents
WNBA Awards Predictions
As the end of the regular season quickly approaches (September 11th), it is time for some end-of-season awards predictions
Coach of the Year
This year’s Coach of the Year race is extremely tight. It’s anyone’s guess who will take home the honor, but here are a few top candidates, listed in a particular order.
Karl Smesko took last year’s 8th-seed Atlanta Dream and has them sitting at the 2nd seed. He installed a 3-point focused offense and kept the team rolling despite injuries to Jordin Canada, Rhyne Howard, and Brittney Griner—not to mention when Maya Caldwell literally took a day off to get married. His ability to integrate new pieces like BG and Brionna Jones seamlessly, while maximizing what Allisha Gray, Rhyne, and Naz Hillmon bring, has been nothing short of impressive. This is my pick.
Natalia Nakase has already led the Valkyries to the most wins by an expansion team in WNBA history. She’s built a system where every player shines, and their defense never really dropped off even with roster turnover, EuroLeague departures, and injuries. Before Kayla Thornton’s season-ending injury, Golden State looked like a lock for the playoffs. Even if they end up battling for the 8th seed, what Nakase has done in year one is remarkable.
Cheryl Reeves is still the only person in the league pulling double duty as both head coach and GM, and I could easily see her winning both awards again. Coaching-wise, she’s unmatched at holding players accountable while bringing out their best. The Lynx look like a well-oiled machine, and her in-game adjustments are second to none. Plus, history is on her side, Minnesota has only won championships in odd years.
Sixth Player of the Year (6POY)
The 6POY is given to the best player off the bench. To be eligible for this award, you must come off the bench more games than you start. My predictions
Naz Hillmon (My Winner)
Jessica Shepard
Natisha Heidman
Kennedy Burke
Most Improved
The Most Improved Player award goes to the player who has shown the biggest leap from their previous season. In both the NBA and WNBA, this award can be controversial. Sometimes it goes to already accomplished players, like Satou Sabally or Dearica Hamby, and other times it goes to someone who transformed from a role player into a true impact talent like DiJonai Carrington last year. For me, it’s ultimately about balancing pure stats versus context.
With that being said, here are my predictions:
Veronica Burton (My Winner)
Naz Hillmon
Azurá Stevens
Rookie of the Year
This one is pretty obvious—both in terms of the definition and the winner. That said, if Paige Bueckers weren’t in the mix, this would be an incredibly competitive award. This rookie class is one of the best ever, whether players came from college or overseas, and there are multiple candidates who could easily have made a serious case for Most Improved.
Paige Buckets (My Winner)
Sonia Citron
Kiki Irafean
All-Rookie Team
This year’s Rookie of the Year race is going to be extremely tough to pick. The rookies have been phenomenal, but it’s hard to compare those coming from professional experience, like Lexi Held and Monique Akoa Makani, to true college-to-pro rookies such as Sonia Citron, Kiki Irafan, and Saniya Rivers. Honestly, we really need a first and second All-Rookie team this season to properly recognize all the talent.
My Team: Paige, Sonia, Kiki, Saniya, Janelle Salaun
Rookies that could change my mind: Dominique Malonga, Laila Lacan, Monique Akoa Makani
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
This year’s Defensive Player of the Year race has some very interesting candidates. Gabby Williams has been exceptional, averaging 2.3 steals per game—the most by any player since 2013. Alanna Smith has been anchoring the Lynx defense, and while everyone often notices Phee’s scoring, it’s the little things Alanna does night in and night out that make her invaluable to Minnesota.
My sleeper pick is Breanna Stewart, and her case is best made by her absence. When Stewie went down with an injury, the Liberty’s defense plummeted from the best in the league to sixth. The drop-off was painfully obvious—poor rebounding, no transition defense, and a struggling three-point defense all contributed to the Liberty losing four of their last five games. Stewie’s impact on both ends of the floor shows why she belongs in the conversation for DPOY.
My Pick: Gabby Williams
MVP
Napheesa Collier looked like the runaway MVP favorite before the season even tipped off. But since going down with an ankle injury in July, what once felt like a foregone conclusion is suddenly a wide-open race. Even after missing a month, Phee still leads the league in scoring, and she reminded everyone why with 32 points and 9 boards in her first game back. Her team has locked in the 1 seed and still comfortably won games in her absence. I don’t know if that hurts or helps her case. The most games an MVP has missed is 4. Phee has missed 10. With nearly a quarter of the season lost, her MVP case definitely takes a hit.
In my last newsletter, I asked: “If the Aces finish the season as a top-5 seed, is A’ja Wilson in the MVP conversation?” Well, here we are. The Aces have rattled off 10 straight wins, climbed to the 3rd seed, and A’ja has stacked up five 30+ point games, plus the first 30 point/20 rebound game in WNBA history. That’s MVP-level dominance.
And then there’s Alyssa Thomas. In August alone, she recorded five triple-doubles—more than any other WNBA player has in their entire career. (For context: Sabrina Ionescu is second all-time with four, while AT now sits at 16.) Her all-around impact is unmatched, but the Mercury’s recent struggles could weigh against.
My Winner: A’ja Wilson
Who I think will win: Phee
All WNBA
I think these stat-based awards will be fairly straightforward, but the guard categories are where a lot of debate is happening. Fans and analysts keep going back and forth, trying to decide who truly stands out among the top perimeter players this season.
First Team: Phee, A’ja, AT, Sabrina, Allisha Gray,
Second Team: Nneka Oguamike, Breanna Stewart, Kelsey Mitchell, Paige Bueckers, Alanna Smith
Battling for Seeding: 1-5
Minnesota Lynx 30-7
The Lynx have secured the playoffs and were able to go 7-2 during Phee’s absence, with losses only to the Liberty and the Dream. Upon her return, Phee dropped 32 and 9, showing us that she is still the HBIC.
I really don’t have too much to say about the Lynx. They operate like a machine and literally hum when they are all locked in. It’s no surprise that they were able to win so much in Phee’s absence; Cheryl has a way of bringing out the best in all her players. I mean, Jessica Shepard comes off the bench and notched her first career triple-double, which also happened to be the most efficient triple-double ever and only the second triple-double in Lynx history.
With role players like this, the Lynx have proven that they are the top team in the league and the favorites to win the championship. It’s theirs to lose (and lose they will).
The Lynx are currently number one in points per game and assists per game. That is a testament to their extremely effective offense.
The Lynx only have to win 1 of their next 7 games to secure the one seed, which they’ll probably do in their next game against the Storm, because the Storm suck.
Las Vegas Aces 26-14
The Las Vegas Aces. WOW. My original OPs have risen from the depths of hell and catapulted themselves into the No. 2 seed.
They’re on a TWELVE-GAME WINNING STREAK. This is the same team that got blown out by 53 points—the second-worst home loss in WNBA history—by the Lynx. Since then? They haven’t lost. Do you understand how insane that is? And it’s not like they’ve been padding wins against bottom-feeders; during this stretch, they’ve beaten the Liberty, the Dream (twice), the Mercury (twice), and Seattle.
Of course, A’ja has gone absolutely nuclear. But the supporting cast has stepped up big, too. Jackie Young is putting up 16 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.7 assists a night. Even put up a couple of triple-doubles. Chelsea Gray has stopped playing like a Harlem Globetrotter and is back to doing what she does best—locking in on defense, dropping pinpoint dimes, and hitting clutch shots. Jewell Loyd is coming off the bench and starting to look like her old self again. Even the role players like Nalyssa Smith, Kierstan Bell, and Dana Evans are giving them solid minutes.
And, maybe most importantly… Becky finally stopped playing Kiah Stokes lol. Let me tell y’all, Becky’s job security is right up there with Steve Kerr, Pop, and Spoelstra.
If it weren’t for my contractual obligation to hate the Aces as a rival fan, I’d be in awe. Honestly, their lack of depth might be what trips them up in the playoffs. But this run? It’s impressive as hell.
Atlanta Dream 24-14
With 24 wins, the Dream have set a franchise record for most wins in a season. This has been an impressive run. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games, with losses only to the Aces (twice, their kryptonite) and the Storm, while also picking up big wins against Minnesota and Seattle.
My biggest worry for them is the consistency of their guard play. Sometimes Rhyne, Lish, and the other guards just disappear—or the team as a whole takes its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. If the Liberty weren’t ass and half-dead when we played them recently, we probably could’ve had another fourth-quarter comeback on our hands. This has been my frequent critique of Rhyne for a couple of years now: when she’s hot, she’s hot, but she can really just disappear some days.
But this isn’t just on Rhyne; the Dream shot 4/24 or 16.7% from three against the Aces (August 27th). They had huge success playing through Bri Jones, who had 15 points in the first half, and was held to 4 points in the second. The Dream have to have multiple ways to get their offense going when their three pointers aren’t falling, or its a wrap for them.
That being said, Rhyne’s return has been a little rocky for the team. We’ve seen Naz Hillmon’s offensive usage dip, but she was moved up to the starting lineup in place of BG. Karl’s decision to move away from the double-big look with BG and Bri has been interesting, but I think it’s working.
Jordin Canada’s hamstring injury has definitely hurt their offense a bit, though.
The good news? The Dream’s remaining schedule is easy as hell—Dallas, Connecticut (3x), and the Sparks (2x).
They should still be able to secure the 2 or 3 seed.
Phoenix Mercury 23-14
The Mercury really confuse me as a team lol. They win games, sure, but sometimes Satou and Kah play like absolute boneheads. AT is out here doing everything, dropping a triple-double every other night just for Satou to throw the game away lmfao.
I think the biggest difference between the Merc now and the Merc before the All-Star break has been the performances of their role players. But lately? Sami, Monique, Lexi Held, and Kathryn Westbeld have been rough. I mean, Kathryn is ass lmfao. Why is she hitting a rookie wall at 29 years old, lord have mercy.
I will say, DeWanna Bonner has been a real spark off the bench for this team, despite people claiming they got worse because of her. She’s scoring the most points off the bench in the league right now. And she gets to watch her boo damn near average a triple-double. If she started out in Phx she may have won her fourth sixth woman of the year award.
Speaking of, Alyssa Thomas deserves to win an MVP. Will she? I’m not sure. She’s broken countless records this season alone and is closing in on Caitlin Clark’s record for most assists in a season. That’s MVP-level production—but she just so happens to be playing in the A’ja Wilson era.
The Merc have an easy-ish schedule coming up, with some desperate teams fighting for positioning and playoff seeding (Liberty, LA, Fever). That should be a good litmus test heading into the postseason.
Regardless, they’re probably a first-round exit.
Do you want me to amp up the roasting of Satou/Kah and Westbeld for comedic effect, or keep it balanced like this?
New York Liberty 23-15
It’s been a rough stretch for the defending champs, and it’s landed them in the 5th seed. Not ideal. If the Liberty stay in the 4th or 5th spot, that means a semifinal matchup with the Lynx—yikes. The struggle has been real.
Injury Timeline
Stewie went down in early July and has been out for about a month. She finally made her return Monday night against the Sun and made an instant impact.
Nyara Sabally has been sidelined with knee discomfort. This is the same knee where she tore her ACL twice in college and now has a cadaver ACL. She’s been out for over a month and counting.
Kennedy Burke missed two weeks with calf tightness.
On August 10th, Isabelle Harrison suffered a concussion, missing four games. She should return on the 28th.
Sabrina Ionescu hurt her foot when Kamilla Cardoso fell on it on the 21st. She sat out the Atlanta game, played against the Sun, but was questionable again on the 28th with a toe injury.
Natasha Cloud broke her nose against Atlanta on the 23rd and has missed two games since.
The injury bug hit hard, and it hasn’t let up. Jonquel, Sabrina, and Stewie have only managed to play 12 games together—and when they do, the Liberty are 12-0. It’s obvious Sandy’s offense revolves around the Big 3, and when one of them is missing, things get ugly. What’s even more confusing is the front office refusing to sign a hardship player even as the roster dropped to just 7–8 bodies. A couple of those recent losses were winnable if we had actual reinforcements.
The Controllables
Injuries are one thing, but the Liberty are also struggling in areas they can control. The rebounding has fallen off a cliff—going from the best in the league to 6th worst. Too often, players just watch rebounds instead of fighting for them. Sabrina (at 5’11”) is out-rebounding the entire frontcourt, which is wild. Then there are the constant unforced turnovers that make games brutal to watch. Most importantly, our effort is severely lacking, which could be due to fatigue, but we simply need to try harder sometimes.
I love this team and will always ride with them, but if they don’t fix the effort plays—the boards, the turnovers—we’re not winning a championship. The injuries deserve grace, but the lack of grit is on us.
The Liberty are sitting in 5th place and can’t afford to drop more games. The remaining schedule isn’t easy, so here’s hoping other teams stumble too.
Playoff Push: Staying in the race 6-8
Indiana Fever 20-18
Since the last newsletter, the Fever finally listened to me (jkjk)… and signed Odyssey Sims, Ariel Powers, and Shey Peddy to patch up their guard depth. They desperately needed the help after losing Caitlin, Syd, Aari, and Sophie Cunningham. Unfortunately, Sophie tore her MCL against the Sun and is out for the season.
At this point, the Fever might have the worst injury luck in the league, but somehow they’re still finding ways to win games and stay in the playoff race. Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, and Natasha Howard have been holding it down, and credit to Coach Steph’s offense—Shey, Ariel, and Odyssey have slotted right in and made an immediate impact. Case in point: they put belt to ass against Seattle the other night.
That said, some tougher battles are ahead against LA (who always seems to have their number), Golden State, and Phoenix. Definitely tune into that Phoenix matchup; it’s a messy, fun rivalry every single time.
I do think the Fever sneak into the playoffs, and my hunch is they’ll bring Caitlin Clark back for that run. Personally, I don’t think they should, especially if they’re the 8th seed. Minnesota would make quick work of them anyway.
Golden State Valkyries 19-18
I mentioned this in the Coach of the Year section but it’s worth saying again: Natalie Nakase can win games with any combination of players. Even with Monique Billings, Tiff Hayes, and Cecilia Zandalasini out, the Valks still manage to compete and often come away with wins. A big reason for that is their point guard, Veronica Burton.
Burton is having a career season. She already has four assists & points double-doubles, including a game with 14 assists and zero turnovers, and she put up 25 points, 13 assists, 5 rebounds, and 4 blocks against Dallas. The Valks’ playoff hopes are fading, but not because of her.
What stands out about this team is that they come ready to play every single night. They currently have the second-best defense in the league, and even though losing Kayla Thornton has hurt their offense, they make sure their opponents don’t get easy buckets either. I’ve also been impressed with Iliana Rupert (I’m still scratching my head about why the Aces didn’t keep her after their 2022 championship) and Janelle Salaün, two versatile bigs who can knock down threes.
The schedule ahead is brutal with matchups against the Mystics, Fever, Liberty, Minnesota (twice), and Seattle. Their playoff chances aren’t great, but that doesn’t take away from what they’ve accomplished. For a brand-new franchise, this has already been a successful season, and the future looks incredibly bright.
Seattle Storm 20-19
What the helly??????????
The Storm have way too much talent on their roster, they’ve been healthy all season, and somehow they still suck. And they suck in multiple ways. They get blown out, they lose close games, and the only consistent player on the roster is Madame President herself, Nneka Ogwumike.
People love to blame the coach in these situations, but honestly there’s only so much Noelle Quinn can do. You’ve got a DPOY candidate in Gabby Williams playing well, but she has a tendency to disappear. The addition of Brittney Sykes hasn’t really shifted much either, even though she provides some scoring. The Storm are sitting in the 8th seed and will probably limp into the playoffs only because the Valks have a much tougher schedule to close the season. That said, circle the September 1st matchup against the Sparks — it’s been one of the most entertaining rivalries this year.
The brightest spot for Seattle is their youth. Nika Muhl and Jordan Horston have both been out with ACL tears but remain solid long-term pieces. And then there’s Dominique Malonga. The 19-year-old phenom took a little while to adjust to the W, but now she’s on an absolute tear. She can score at the rim, rebound like crazy, and is improving on the defensive end every game. The only real hurdle left is learning how to defend without fouling. Her emergence is why we’re seeing reduced minutes for Erica Wheeler and Ezi Magbegor.
At this point in the season, it feels pointless to put faith in the Storm. The best move is to look ahead to the offseason and see how they shake things up. And let’s be real — Noelle Quinn has got to go. If this were the NBA, she would’ve been gone a month ago.
Los Angeles Sparks 17-19
The Sparks started the season looking rough, but after the All-Star break, they’ve shown flashes of being a real problem. They strung together some impressive wins and looked like a team hitting its stride, though the past few weeks have been rocky, with them alternating between wins and losses.
The thing about the Sparks is that they have one of the best offenses in the league and also the worst defense. Basically, the opposite of the Valkyries. Offensively, they’re putting up anywhere from 80 to 108 points a night, which is a ton, but the problem is their opponents are also scoring in that range. When you can’t get stops, it’s hard to win, especially against disciplined defenses like a healthy Liberty, Minnesota, or Phoenix.
Right now, the Sparks are just one game out of a playoff spot, but their schedule isn’t doing them any favors with Atlanta twice, Phoenix, and the Aces on deck. Realistically, their best shot is banking on the Storm continuing to be terrible.
In the end, I think the Sparks fall short of the postseason, but this roster has real potential. It’s hard to come back from only winning 6 games pre-All-Star break. With the right tweaks and some defensive accountability, they should come back stronger next year.
Washington Mystics 16-22
The Mystics are stuck somewhere between a “playoff push” and “spoilers.” For a moment it looked like they might make a real run, but then came a five-game losing streak that buried those hopes a bit. They aren’t officially out yet, but with 22 losses and sitting four games behind the Sparks, the climb is steep.
The silver lining is that this feels like an ethical tank job. Their rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, are getting huge opportunities and making the most of them. Soni has turned into a fourth-quarter demon—she can go quiet most of the game and then suddenly drop 15 in the final frame. She’s averaging 15 points per game as a rookie and recently passed Chamique Holdsclaw for the most points by a rookie in franchise history. Meanwhile, Kiki has been holding her own as a rebounding machine and a force in the paint.
The future is bright in D.C. The Mystics have one of the best front offices in the league, they’ve kept key vets like Shakira Austin and Stef Dolson, and they’re clearly investing in their rookies and young core.
They won’t make the playoffs this year, but they’re setting themselves up well. At the very least, they’ll be fun to watch down the stretch—except when they play the Liberty.
The Spoilers: Out of the Race
Connecticut Sun 9-28
Don’t let the Sun’s record fool you. This team has won 4 of their last 5 games and has been playing solid basketball, largely thanks to their rookies and Tina Charles.
Let’s start with Leïla Lacan. Like I said, what are they feeding these basketball players in France? Lacan is an absolute force. She’s leading the league in steals with 2.4 per game and she didn’t even start the season until after the All-Star break. She’s quick, a two-level scorer, and a menace on defense. When she’s off the floor, the Sun’s defensive rating jumps from 96.2 to 112.3. If she had come sooner, I think the Sun would have moved up a tier this season.
She’s not the only young star. Aneesah Morrow, who many doubted could succeed in the W because she’s relatively small for a center, has been a rebounding machine and a force to be reckoned with. Despite being shorter than most at her position, she pulls down boards and plays with relentless effort and motor—reminding me of her college teammate, Angel Reese. What’s even more shocking is how well she shoots the three-ball. This girl can hoop.
Finally, the veteran presence Tina Charles is showing she still has it. She’s been on a tear, helping lead the Sun to a three-game win streak. Named Eastern Conference Player of the Week (August 18–24), she averaged 19 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1 steal per game. Tina continues to play at the highest level while mentoring the young players, supporting their growth, and boosting their confidence. I really want Tina to get a ring… she needs to come back to NYC!
Chicago Sky 9-28
The Sky have gone 1–7 in their last stretch, with their lone win coming against the Liberty. They’re a bad team right now. The guard play is horrendous, injuries have piled up, and nothing is clicking. We already knew this (Kia Nurse still sucks), so instead of piling on, let’s focus on the bright spot: Kamilla Cardoso.
Kamilla has taken plenty of heat from Sky fans for not being aggressive or playing to her potential. But in Angel Reese’s absence with a back injury, she’s stepped up and shown she can be a dominant force, putting up 20-and-15 type games almost at will. The challenge for Big Milla is consistency, and that’s as much on the coaching staff as it is on her. They need to figure out how to maximize her both as a solo anchor and in tandem with Angel.
Dallas Wings 8-29
The Wings are another team crushed by the injury bug. Arike, Li Yueru, Ty Harris, and JJ Quinerly are all out for the season, and Paige has been in and out of the lineup with rest and illness. They just can’t catch a break.
The good news is that Maddy Siegrist is back and logging solid minutes. It’s a shame she missed most of the season, because if she had stayed healthy she could have been in the Most Improved Player conversation.
Then there’s Paige Bueckers, the clear Rookie of the Year. She dropped 44 points in a one-point loss to the Sparks on 17-for-21 shooting—that’s 80 percent from the floor. Paige is just so smooth and efficient that it’s hard to believe she’s still a rookie. She’s already a three-level scorer, a midrange assassin, and a poised floor general. Bit by bit, Curt Miller seems to be building a team around her, and that’s where Dallas’s real future lies.
Looking ahead, don’t be surprised if Arike gets cored and traded this offseason. It feels like the only way to fully embrace the Paige Era.
Hoops & Hype: Media Picks
Check out some of the cool podcasts, videos, reads, and fashion I saw this week.
@wnba The top plays of the night revisits some of the toughest highlights during yesterdays game action 💪 #wnba #topplays
